Watching the Docks: How the ILA Strike Could Reshape Inflation and the Economy

EDITOR’S NOTE: ILA has called off its strike till Jan 25. We will be bringing behind the scenes maneuvering that achieved this.

Our August report accurately predicted the faster-than-expected cooling of inflation, culminating in the Federal Reserve's 0.5% rate cut in September. Most economists at this point were warning about the protracted battle against “sticky” inflation.

This precision underscores a critical insight: while the Fed and other economist have sophisticated models, they often overlook the movement of physical goods and its effect on inflation. We are afraid they are going to make the same mistake again. In this Report, we go behind the scenes to assess the impact of the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA) strike on economy, politics, and markets.

Inflation: A Primer

Before diving into the main story, it's important to recall the rollercoaster decade we’ve just experienced. Post-pandemic, the U.S. economy puzzled everyone—first with its unexpected strength, then…